In the blink of an eye, in the late October, the traditional sales season of the “Golden September and Silver 10” in the home furnishing industry came as scheduled, but due to the current downward pressure on the macro economy, from the recent market feedback, the “Golden Nine” in the past has performed a little bit better than in previous years. dull.
Recently, the Department of Circulation Industry Development of the Ministry of Commerce and the China Building Materials Circulation Association jointly released the BHI of the National Building Materials Home Furnishings Index in September. The data showed that the national building materials home prosperity index in September was 101.22, up 5.23% from the previous month and down 2.17% from the same period of last year. The sales of home building materials above designated size in September was 91.64 billion yuan, up 14.44% from the previous month and down 0.26% from the same period last year.
In the overall low market environment of the past two years, this group of data is not bright or bleak, but it is still normal and expected. What is surprising is that in the case of a small increase in the index in September, only the “Manager Confidence Index” fell by a month-on-month, and the decline was 17.36 percentage points. This shows that the current confidence in the building materials and home furnishing enterprises is weak, and the expectations for the next market are greatly reduced. Qin Zhanxue, executive vice president of China Building Materials Circulation Association, said that the home market has been in the low operating range for a long time from the beginning of the year, which has also reduced the employment opportunities and market trading opportunities in the industry, and the confidence of employees has weakened.
Recently, when I was chatting with enterprises, I felt that my morale was relatively low. Many companies were very confused and distressed. What is the future prospect of the home industry? Can the industry still do a loss? adhere to? Many people are at the crossroads of advancing and retreating, and they don’t know where to go.
To be honest, in the face of the problems thrown by enterprises, Yiou Home can not give a clear answer. But we can be sure that the future of the home industry must be limitless. Although it is now in the autumn and winter seasons, you must maintain your confidence and stick to your heart.
This is not blind optimism, but a long-term judgment on the development of the industry based on observations of many favorable factors. The main points are listed below, and I hope to help my colleagues increase their confidence.
The urbanization rate continues to increase, and the home industry has released huge market demand.
According to a number of macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of permanent residents in China's cities and towns in 2017 was 792.98 million, an increase of 21.82 million over 2016. The resident population of rural areas was 589.73 million, a decrease of 13.73 million. The proportion of urban population to the total population was 57.35%. Compared with the average urbanization rate of 83% in the United States during the same period, there is still a great room for development in China's urbanization level.
In the previous article, “The Chinese Story of Low Urbanization Rate: A Group of Ten Billion-Class Companies Will Be Born in the Home Industry in Ten Years”, the billion-dollar home has also discussed this topic in detail. At present, China’s urbanization construction is in full swing, for home furnishing companies. The gradually increasing urbanization rate will release a large amount of market demand and new opportunities for the home building materials industry.
According to the report of the 19th National Congress, in the past five years, China’s urbanization rate has increased by 1.2 percentage points annually, and more than 80 million agricultural transfer populations have become urban residents. According to the financial report data of a listed home furnishing enterprise, for every one percentage point increase in China's urbanization rate, the market releases about 34.5 million sets of new homes. This is a very impressive set of data. In the next five to ten years, along with high-speed towns. The process of the process, which can be imagined in the industry.
The consumption level of residents has increased, and the expectation for a better life has gradually landed.
In recent years, the level of consumption of Chinese residents has gradually increased, and quality consumption and spiritual satisfaction have been pursued since the beginning of functional demand. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2017, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents reached 25,974 yuan, an increase of 7.3% over 2016; the consumption structure of urban residents continued to improve and upgrade, and the proportion of residential consumption increased significantly. In 2015, the per capita living expenditure was 4,726 yuan. It accounts for 22.1% of total consumer spending and is expected to reach 25.7% in 2020.
The data is boring, but the market opportunities behind it are enormous. Residents' disposable income has increased, which means that the increase in purchasing power can release more strong household consumption demand, and the longing for a better life will gradually fall. In 2015, Wu Xiaobo, a famous financial scholar, proposed the concept of new middle-class. Based on the observation of the new middle-class people, Wu Xiaobo released the “2017 New Middle-class White Paper” at the end of last year, pointing out that the basic characteristics of the new middle-class are 80 years later, and they have received higher education, mainly in the first line. New first-tier and second-tier cities, engaged in professional or managerial work, with an annual net income of 100,000 to 500,000 yuan, with new aesthetics, new consumption, and new connected values.
In the past two years, with the continuous expansion of the new middle class, various industries have also ushered in a new wave of consumption. In the home industry, we also obviously feel a lot of new changes, the product cost ratio is getting higher and higher, the various categories are more abundant, consumers pay more attention to the scene and experience consumption, pay attention to the cultural connotation behind the product, environmental protection, intelligence, health, fashion, etc. The class label is further subdivided.
At the end of last year, Mao Shengyong, deputy director and spokesperson of the Comprehensive Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that developed countries such as Europe and the United States have formed an olive-type social structure, with the proportion of middle-income groups reaching more than 60%. Although China's middle-income groups are the largest and their development is accelerating, there is still a large gap in the proportion. This is the direction for further efforts in the future.
In order to further promote the upgrading of household consumption, the country has been active in financial policy since the beginning of this year. The recent introduction of policies such as RRR cuts and tax cuts are all combined punches around the core of boosting consumption. The promulgation and implementation of these related policies will also In the big situation, it is good for the development of the home industry. For example, in September, the State Council issued the "Several Opinions on Improving the Mechanism of Promoting Consumption and Further Motivating the Consumption Potential of Residents", which clarified several points of efforts to promote the upgrading of household consumption in the next two years, including the residential area; The implementation plan of the consumption system mechanism (2018-2020) clearly mentions “improving the policy system for promoting the upgrading of the physical consumption structure and vigorously developing the housing rental market”.
Technological development is changing with each passing day, and the efficiency of the home industry is constantly improving.
The development of the home improvement industry is still in a relatively traditional state. The service chain is lengthy, heavily dependent on people, large and scattered, and it seems difficult to use technological change to promote development. But it should not be overlooked that compared with the previous years, the home industry is changing little by little in terms of efficiency, and behind this is inseparable from the support and influence of technology.
In the past two years, Yiou Home has conducted a simple inventory of home furnishing companies that have been financed and financed by technology. It has been found that in the past two years, under the influence of various emerging technologies, many home furnishing companies have joined the technology express train to change the original production mode. Combine technology and industry depth and quietly remove the traditional hat. These various new technologies have laid a solid foundation for the home furnishing industry and become a high-level combat weapon for enterprise innovation and development.
Technology is intangible, but when the technology is subtly integrated into every aspect of industrial development in a way that is “smooth and silent”, its effects are immeasurable. We can see that all kinds of smart marketing platforms, design software, and signing artifacts came into being; new retail stores, big data portraits, flexible supply, etc. were realized, and the supply end and demand side formed a virtuous circle; The concept has gradually landed, and the era of truly connected smart homes has begun to come; the level of industrialization in third- and fourth-tier cities has increased, production capacity has continued to increase, costs in logistics and services have declined, and industry development efficiency has improved.
In the "Science and Technology Innovation Helping Home Furnishing Industry Research Report" released this week, Yiou Think Tank conducted a detailed study on the new technologies in the home improvement industry, and believed that the home industry will be efficient and experienced under the new technology empowerment. On the next step, the transformation of technology into the industry is far from being limited to this. There is still more value space behind it waiting to be discovered, and more innovative business models are also brewing and fermenting.
What should be expected is the expectation itself
"The only thing we are afraid of is fear itself - an inexplicable, irrational, unfounded fear that squanders the efforts needed to turn people back into progress." This sentence is from US President Franklin. At the mouth of Roosevelt, when the United States was in a worldwide economic crisis, Roosevelt used this to inspire the people. The economic crisis was not terrible. The danger was the blind panic behind it.
At present, the home industry is in a transitional period. In the general negative sentiment, on the one hand, the old forces are fading, on the other hand, the new forces are rising, and the concentration of industry brands is constantly improving. In fact, in addition to the points listed above, there are still many forces that cannot be ignored that have a profound impact on the development of the home furnishing industry. The development of assembly-style decoration technology, the popularization of the standard for the delivery of hardcover houses, and the attempt to install the model are all The positive factors of the industry. In this huge and scattered market, giant companies have not yet emerged in the true sense. We have every reason to have more confidence. The future of the home industry is worth looking forward to.