For the upcoming 2019, whether it is colder or more painful, or the recovery is promising, there are mixed opinions, but on the whole, the voice of singing and the mood of worry are still the mainstream trend. In this regard, perhaps the GF Securities Development Research Center's prosperous forecast for the upstream real estate market in 2019 will bring a little confidence to the home furnishing enterprises.
How complicated the Chinese economy is and how complicated China's real estate is. At present, the real estate boom is declining in the short term, but the completed area is expected to improve next year. However, although the real estate completion index is more suitable for predicting furniture sales than the sales under the premise of reliable data, the GF Securities Development Research Center believes that the current real estate sales indicators may be more reasonable.
First, housing sales are highly deterministic in terms of statistical caliber, and the area of completion is constrained by the new construction and delivery provisions in the sales contract. The variables are more complex and difficult to accurately predict.
Second, the completed area is still affected by the property sales boom. According to the real estate group of the Development Research Center of GF Securities, one of the factors affecting the area of completion is newly started, mainly affected by the area that can be started (land transfer) and the willingness to start (sales and inventory levels), so the sales boom is somewhat It will still have an impact on the area of completion. On the whole, real estate sales are still relatively reasonable indicators for observing furniture sales.
Affected by the property boom, the home industry is expected to pick up in the second quarter of 2019
In the short-term (3 months), the monthly sales area of commercial housing in the country in September 2018 fell by 3.6% year-on-year, and turned negative for the first time. According to the resumption of the real estate group of the GF Securities Development Research Center, from the previous cycle, it was transferred to It takes about 2-3 quarters to get to the bottom, so the real estate boom is expected to continue to decline in the short term, and the furniture industry will be weak.
From the medium-term (6 months) point of view, based on historical experience, it is expected that the growth rate of real estate sales in the second quarter of 2019 is expected to bottom out, and the pessimism about the furniture sector is expected to be restored.
In terms of long-term (more than one year), the completed area in 2019 is affected by new construction, or better than this year. According to past experience, after 2008, the developer's development volume has gradually expanded. Due to the demand for capital development, there is a certain lag in the completion of new labor unions. First, from the high growth rate point of view, the high growth rate of the completion rate lags behind the new construction for about two years, and matches the completion delivery period in the sales contract. To a certain extent, it indicates that the completion of the housing enterprise is passive completion under contractual constraints. . In addition, from the high point of new construction and completion growth rate, the new construction growth rate is often in the upper end of the annual cycle, and the corresponding high growth rate of completion is often seen in the recovery cycle of the next cycle, the middle lag It happens to be the downtime of a small cycle.
According to this prediction, the new high growth rate of the current cycle is about Q3 in 2018. We find that the year-on-year growth rate of new construction area has continued to increase since the second half of 2017. Based on historical experience, it is expected that the completion area will be better after the second quarter of next year, and the superimposed industry boom will stimulate real estate developers to push the market. The certainty is enhanced and it is expected to help the furniture industry to further recover.